A few months back, the US President was reported to have expressed the hope that the new governments emerging from the ashes of the old dictatorships in the Arab world would look a lot like the one that the Turkish Prime Minister has built over the past eight years.

... Islamic political forces are literally a force to be reckoned with...- Leo Brincat

After delivering a speech that emphasised the Islamisation of Libya, the then head of the transitional government tried to reassure the Western powers who helped topple Muammar Gaddafi that the country’s new leaders are moderate Muslims.

Although Libyan elections still seem to be rather far off, the turn of events so far in Tunisia and Egypt has shown that Islamic political forces are literally a force to be reckoned with, although they might vary in orientation and hue. While the Salafist movement seems to have even taken pollsters by surprise with the strong results that it has achieved in Egypt, it had long been predicted that the Muslim Brotherhood had more than staying power.

At the time of writing, reports have started filtering in that in a bid to reverse decades of mistrust and hostility, the US Administration seems to be seeking to forge closer ties with such a movement, which until recently was considered to be irreconcilably opposed to US interests.

Many contend that one of the main reasons – apart from the accord with Israel – why Hosni Mubarak’s corrupt regime was supported by many Western powers was partly linked to the Islamist ideology of the Brotherhood and their historic ties with militant groupings.

The new political landscape that has been emerging in the Arab Spring countries has brought along a new political reality that no one can afford to ignore.

On the other hand, if those who kept on hoping of a Gaddafi bounce back were living in a constant state of denial, anyone predicting an easy transition in these newly liberated countries risks slipping into a new state of denial too.

Nevertheless, this is in no way intended to dampen the enthusiasm and eagerness for change in a populace experiencing freedom, possibly for the first time in their lifetime. While the best case scenario would be to see the transition processes moving in the Islamic direction of the economic strength, political stability and pro-entrepreneurial Turkey and Malaysia, in my opinion, what can hopefully prove to be inspirational might not necessarily translate itself into a model, replica or template in the countries in question.

If anything, I think that the whole Islamic orientation might unfold differently and at a different pace in the various countries involved.

The role of the military might be a determinant factor in each and every country, particularly since these have always been perceived as the guardians of the state’s secular status and character.

But if we take the case of our closest neighbour, Libya, things might prove to be even more complicated than that. For the simple reason that they are still in the process of trying to build a new Libyan military.

Time will tell whether the recent appointment of a new head of the armed forces will lead to acceptance by the militia commanders and whether this will in any way reverse or speed up the Islamisation process close to our shores.

The over-simplistic theory would be to conjure up visions of a political Islam that seeks its inspiration from extremist reactionary states. Be they Afghanistan or Iran.

The extent of how far Sharia law can be applied in these countries depends in a large part on the interpretation of a large body of Quranic verses. After all, Sharia law is enshrined in the Constitution of a number of Middle Eastern countries with Muslim majorities.

History and culture in the respective countries will also somehow come into play.

While some might try to squash Islamisation, it is known that in some countries many Islamists consider the ruling transitionary governments to be overly secular. Whether this could imply that they are also out of touch with the ordinary man in the street might compound a problematic situation further.

One of the best studies on post-Gaddafi Libya, Holding Libya Together – Security Challenges After Gaddafi, by the long-established International Crisis Group, argues that Islamic orientation might also differ between one militia and another because they all seem to have their own narrative to justify their legitimacy.

Mutterings about the role of external non European/American elements in the region continue to prevail too.

The interim government in Libya is one of technocrats but only elections, if and when held, will give a clearer indication and picture of the national will.

On the other hand, one will still have to see how things will work out in the Presidential elections in Egypt and whether the outcome will be respected by the army regardless of the turn of events.

Until then, hope and frustrations are bound to prevail. After all, no babies have ever been born without their mother experiencing any birth pangs.

In 2005, the then US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, had made a speech in Cairo lamenting that, for too long, the West had sacrificed the need for reform in the Arab world to what it saw as the greater imperative of “stability”.

While some failed to take up her advice, others tend to fear that the balancing act between democracy and stability might not be easily struck.

Whatever the future might hold, a repeat of the Algerian bloodletting of 1992 must be avoided at all costs. In the Maghreb and beyond.

Brincat.leo@gmail.com

www.leobrincat.com

The author is a Labour member of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Foreign and European Affairs.